PROSPECT THEORY

MS06-062 TRANSPARENT DRAWING

This discussion of the psychological mechanics of client decision making might be considered a tangential to the topic at hand. Yet I continue to be fascinated by the psychological definitions that apply to the client and designer interaction. I find it fascinating to now have terms to apply to those on planning boards, for example, who default to the gable solution when there is the possibility of something far better and interesting. I used to walk away from those meetings sadly shaking my head and professing that I don’t understand people. Now, I at least have an operative psychological framework with which to understand the default to a gable roof.

There is no doubt that when we present our designs, we are tasking those who pay us with an enormous task. We ask them to make holistic evaluations of what are very complex objects. That is a task that most do not typically engage in. In fact, most folks have had zero experience in the evaluation of complex objects.

Think of the difference between someone evaluating a house that is for sale vs evaluating your design for their new house. The evaluation of an existing house is complex enough for many people. Compare that with what a client imagines when they first look at your design drawings. It is safe to say that we are asking them to engage in a very complex evaluation.

Kahneman developed what he calls prospect theory. In this psychological model, he established relationships between the possibility of loss and the certainty of gain. We touched on basic loss prevention behavior in the previous post.

Kahneman’s model applies to specific values of gain and specific probabilities of losses, whereas in design, we are in a more nebulous realm. That is to say, when our clients make design evaluations, there is not a specific value of gain that can be applied, say, to the rich experience of walking around in a bright, sunny space with well oriented views.

Despite that caveat, it still remains interesting to use his terms in our discussion of design decision making. Prospect theory tells us that when there is a high probability of gaining a known quantity, people are innately wired to make decisions that are risk averse. In this situation, they are willing to accept a less than favorable settlement. Their fear of disappointment is given greater weight than the hope for a more favorable outcome.

The mechanisms now become clearer for how our clients choose the gable solution. Because of prospect theory, the gable roof solution has a high enough value for our clients. And our clients are hardwired to protect that high enough value of the gable solution, rather than seek risk on another solution with the possibility of a better value. The gable has a high degree of certainty. The more modern design is fraught with the possibility effect. So they typically choose the gable.

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